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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-20T15:05:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-20T15:05Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27022/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the eruption and subsequent M8.2 flare from AR 3435 (N07E35) seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-09-20T14:15Z. Dimming and field line movement is visible near the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery as well. No CME arrival signature at L1 on September 22-23.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-23T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/27024/1
Model Inputs:
2023-09-20T15:05:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-35.0, Lat.=-37.0, Speed=521.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-09-20T21:27Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-23T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230920_212700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 73.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-09-20T18:58Z

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